This morning Ana reformed from the remnants of TD2 and then Invest 90L became TD #3 and quickly upgraded to Tropical Storm Bill at 5pm today.
Tropical Atlantic
At the same time there is a tropical wave moving thru Florida bring thunderstorms across the state and more widespread across the southern part of the state. This is an area that has a slight chance of developing and we are watching. Ana has been struggling this afternoon after a burst of convection early on. She is now experiencing a bit of shear along with moving into a very dry air mass to the west. Water vapor imagery shows the large area of dry air just to the west of Tropical Storm Ana.
Water Vapor
With that in mind the intensity forecast for Ana is still highly uncertain since some computer models continue to show very modest strengthening over the next several days. The WRF model which is run in the FOX 13 weather center continues to show slow strengthening of Ana as wind shear should lessen. The WRF is also in agreement with the GFDL in a more southerly track compared to many of the other models. At the same Bill continues to gain strength as he moves towards the Lesser Antilles.
WRF Model Saturday Evening
The WRF model shows both storms continuing West for the next couple of days with a gradual turn more northerly.
WRF Model Tuesday Morning
By Tuesday morning Ana is approaching the eastern tip of Cuba which may be a bit too fast. The official forecast track has it moving slower than the WRF model indicates. The official forecast track also shows Ana approaching the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. A word of caution in this forecast…this is a 5 day forecast and the error in this forecast is quite large. This storm could go anywhere from the Yucatan to Daytona to miss the U.S. completely by brushing the Carolina coast. This will become more clear over the coming days.
